The momentum and reversal effects of investor sentiment on stock prices

摘要

In this paper, we illustrate the real function relationship between the stock returns and change of investor sentiment based on the nonparametric regression model. The empirical results show that when the change of investor sentiment is moderate, the stock return is positively correlated with the change of investor sentiment, presenting an obvious momentum effect. However, the stock return is negatively correlated with the change of investor sentiment if the change of investor sentiment is dramatic, presenting significant reversal effects. Moreover, the degree of reversal effect caused by extremely optimistic sentiment is greater than that driven by extremely pessimistic sentiment, which shows a significant asymmetry. Our findings offer a partial explanation for financial anomalies such as the mean reversion of stock returns, the characteristic of slow rise and steep fall in China's stock market and so on.