ASSESSING RUSSIAN ATTITUDES TOWARD PHASED, DEEP NUCLEAR REDUCTIONS STRATEGIC AND REGIONAL CONCERNS

摘要

As the United States and Russia contemplate the next stage of nuclear arms reductions beyond the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, another issue enters the agenda-that of the impact of possible deep reductions on the shape of the global nuclear balance. As the gap between the US/Russian arsenals and the arsenals of "second-tier" nuclear weapon states narrows, the familiar shape of the global balance, which remains, to a large extent, bipolar, is likely to change. The article explores the Russian approach to the relationship between further US-Russian reductions and the prospect of "nuclear multipolarity," and assesses the relative weight of this issue in Russian arms control policy as well as the views on the two specific regional balances-the one in Europe (including UK and French nuclear weapons) and in Asia (the possible dynamic of the Russian-Chinese nuclear balance).