The Stock Market and the Election

摘要

STERN: What does the year-to-date performance of the stock market predict about the election's outcome? HIRSCH: This is a stock market that was in trouble, even before last week's sell-offs, and the malaise we've beeirexpe-riencing makes the ouster of the incumbent party more likely. Strong Septembers and Octobers usually lead to an incumbent-party win. You would think despite the closeness of the polls that we still are going to see Democrats retake the White House. Given all that you know about election-year patterns, how would you expect stocks to perform through the election and for the rest of the year? Election years are traditionally up years. Incumbent administrations shamelessly attempt to massage the economy so voters will keep them in power. But sometimes overpowering events occur and the market crumbles, as it did last week.