Is the pace of science predictable? We may soon find out. A pair of researchers have used the rate of exoplanet finds to date to predict that the first habitable "exo-Earth" could turn up in May 2011.rnIn 1965, Gordon Moore, who went on to co-found Intel, observed that the number of transistors that fit on a chip doubles every two years or so, a trend now known as Moore's law. Samuel Arbesman of Harvard Medical School wants to see if "scientometrics" - the statistical study of science - can predict a rate of discovery.
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