FORECASTING: WHAT WE KNOW

摘要

When seismologists are asked whether earthquakes can be predicted, they tend to be quick to answer no. Sometimes even we geologists can forget that in the ways that matter, earthquakes are too predictable. We know where in the world they are likely to happen. For most of these zones, we have quite good estimates of the expected long-term rates of earthquakes (see map, right). And while we often cannot say that the next Big One will strike in a human lifetime, we can say it is very likely to occur within the lifetime of a building.