Predicting individual breeding values and making forward selections from open-pollinated progeny test trials for seed orchard establishment of interior Lodgepole Pine (Pinus contorta ssp. latifolia) in British Columbia

摘要

Ten-year height data from three open-pollinated lodgepole pine progeny test trials were analysed in order to select individuals for seed orchard establishment in the low and high elevation seed-planning units (TOLO and TOHI) of the new Thompson Okanagan seed planning-zone in interior British Columbia, Canada. The total test population had about 35,000 individuals from 362 families of 9 provenances and was divided into two portions, each serving as the base population for its appropriate seed-planning unit. For each population, various genetic parameters were estimated and individual breeding values were predicted. Combined-site estimates of individual, family, and within-family heritability ranged from 0.23 to 0.38, 0.77 to 0.84, and 0.17 to 0.29, respectively. Estimated coefficients of type-b genetic correlation were greater than 0.81, indicating little G × E interaction in this region. Provenance effects were large. Larch Hills and Inonoaklin River were the two superior provenances with an expected gain of 13% and 10% in stem volume at rotation age of 60 years in TOLO. Individual breeding values was not uniformly distributed among provenances and the top 100 individuals originated from 20 families in TOLO and 32 families in TOHI. Co-ancestry among these individuals should not be a serious concern in seed orchard establishment as the predicted genetic loss due to excessive inbreeding is only 1.06% in TOLO and 0.6% in TOHI. The status numbers of the two prospective seed orchards are 32 and 44, respectively, and both are well above the required minimum of 10 in British Columbia. Using unrelated clones for seed orchard establishment may result in reduced optimum genetic gain and thus is not a favourable option.