Earthquake risk from co-seismic stress: Last year's Indonesian earthquake has increased seismic hazard in the region

摘要

Following the massive loss of life caused by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in Indonesia and its tsunami, the possibility of a triggered earthquake on the contiguous Sunda trench subduction zone is a real concern. We have calculated the distributionsof co-seismic stress on this zone, as well as on the neighbouring, vertical strike-slip Sumatra fault, and find an increase in stress on both structures that significantly boosts the already considerable earthquake hazard posed by them. In particular, the increased potential for a large subduction-zone event in this region, with the concomitant risk of another tsunami, makes the need for a tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean all the more urgent.