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Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK

机译:在英国爆发口蹄疫的最佳反应疫苗策略

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Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK provides an ideal opportunity to explore optimal control measures for an infectious disease. The presence of fine-scale spatio-temporal data for the 2001 epidemic has allowed the development of epidemiological models that are more accurate than those generally created for other epidemics and provide the opportunity to explore a variety of alternative control measures. Vaccination was not used during the 2001 epidemic; however, the recent DEFRA (Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs) contingency plan details how reactive vaccination would be considered in future. Here, using the data from the 2001 epidemic, we consider the optimal deployment of limited vaccination capacity in a complex heterogeneous environment. We use a model of FMD spread to investigate the optimal deployment of reactive ring vaccination of cattle constrained by logistical resources. The predicted optimal ring size is highly dependent upon logistical constraints but is more robust to epidemiological parameters. Other ways of targeting reactive vaccination can significantly reduce the epidemic size; in particular, ignoring the order in which infections are reported and vaccinating those farms closest to any previously reported case can substantially reduce the epidemic. This strategy has the advantage that it rapidly targets new foci of infection and that determining an optimal ring size is unnecessary.
机译:英国的口蹄疫(FMD)提供了探索传染病最佳控制措施的理想机会。 2001年流行病的精细时空数据的存在使流行病学模型的开发比为其他流行病通常创建的模型更为准确,并为探索各种替代控制措施提供了机会。在2001年的流行病中没有使用疫苗;但是,最近的DEFRA(环境食品和农村事务部)应急计划详细说明了将来将如何考虑接种疫苗。在这里,使用2001年流行病的数据,我们考虑了在复杂的异构环境中有限疫苗接种能力的最佳部署。我们使用口蹄疫传播模型来研究后勤资源约束的牛的反应环疫苗的最佳部署。预测的最佳环尺寸高度依赖于后勤约束,但对流行病学参数更可靠。其他针对反应性疫苗的方法可以显着减少流行病的规模;特别是,忽略报告感染的顺序并为最接近任何先前报告病例的那些农场接种疫苗可以大大减少流行病。这种策略的优势在于,它可以迅速地针对新的感染灶,并且不需要确定最佳的环大小。

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