L'Aquila: science is not a crystal ball

摘要

The manslaughter convictions of seismologists in Italy offer a timely reminder of science's core functions to both scientists and non-scientists (Nature 490, 446; 2012).Over time, combining existing scientific data and new methods has allowed scientists to predict possible outcomes and associated probabilities. But the accurate prediction of certain events is, and will continue to be, challenging -particularly in economics, climate research, disease pandemics and natural disasters. Science can