Potenziale und Szenarien für die zukünftige Biomassenutzung

摘要

The question of sustainable production and use of biomass for energy was explored in a multi-year, multi-disciplinary research project which utilized material-flow analysis to identify the cost, environmental and employment impacts of different scenarios for the future energy system in Germany until 2030. Funded by the German Environment Ministry (BMU) from 2001 to 2004, the project created publicly available, up-to-date and scientifically reviewed technology data for biomass energy systems, as well as life-cycle comparisons of biomass technologies for electricity, heat, and transport fuels, and presented validated data for decision-makers. The integrated analysis of national biomass flows concerned agriculture, forestry, and waste management. Future technology development was taken into account for all technologies using learning curves. The project also identified the potentials for future biomass-for-energy in all sectors, and the potential for additional energy crops and short-rotation forestry. The potentials were based on a dynamic modelling of future developments of driving forces such as agriculture, waste streams, etc., and also included environmental restrictions (e. g., maximum use rates for forest and agriculture residues). The scenario analysis includes a 30% share of organic farming for food, developments of population, food consumption and agriculture (yields, imports and exports), as well as land use for nature conservation, biodiversity in forestry, and soil protection (straw).