As hostilities in the Libyan conflict continue to wind down, oil market participants are now estimating the pace of recovery in Libyan oil production and exports. Estimates vary, but Libyan government forecasts suggesting a return by end-2012 to 1.6 mbpd of Libyan crude output, the level seen prior to the unrest, seem optimistic. The IEA takes a more cautious approach, citing uncertainty over the extent of damage to the oil infrastructure, as well as security concerns for industry personnel. Accordingly, the agency sees just 350-400 kbpd of production by the end of 2011, rising to 1.1 mbpd by 4q12. With this recovery trajectory, average Libyan output could rise by 0.30 mbpd yoy in 2012 followed by another 0.55 mbpd rise in 2013. The country would not fully reverse the 1.10 mbpd yoy plunge in output experienced in 2011 until 2014.
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