Broadening in Iron Ore Supply Base

摘要

Iron ore and freight markets continue to be influenced by fluctuations in Australian, Brazilian and Indian supplies. Yet, principally due to the cuts in Indian exports discussed in last month's MSR, their combined share of seaborne iron ore trade is set to fall this year as other sources seek to make up for the shortfalls. This has been most apparent in the Chinese market, where the share of the main three exporting countries fell from over 90% (292.6 Mt) in Jan-July 2010 to 75% (293.2 Mt) in the first seven months of 2011. The "other" year -on-year increases to China have been led by Russia (+5.5 Mt) and Canada (+5.0 Mt), but been supplemented by gains from a wide range of sources, including Iran (+2.1 Mt), Indonesia (+1.9 Mt), Peru (+1.7 Mt) and South Africa (+1.7 Mt). Indeed, excluding Australia, Brazil and India there are 14 different nations that could export 5 Mt or more of iron ore to China this year.