At 6.00am on 23 June, Ipsos MORI researchers finished examining their data and gave their final prediction that Brexit had a 26% chance of happening, but most likely, Britain would narrowly vote for the status quo and vote to Remain. We had good rational reasons to expect Remain to prevail, despite our own polls' evidence that Leave's campaign was winning. Empirically we could cite the late swing to the status quo in the Scottish referendum and also the 'status quo bias' in over 100 other referendums around the world where the prime minister concerned had endorsed the winning outcome.
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