Caspian Oil is no Middle East

摘要

The Caspian Sea has been over-promoted by some as a new Middle East, and as an alternative global supplier to the Arab Gulf. Others, by contrast, see it as an overstated high-risk oil province that will remain, to a great extent, isolated from world markets. The reality, as always, is somewhere in between. This paper assesses the oil potential of the Caspian Sea. It argues that with ultimate reserves of 40 to 60 billion barrels (bb), the Caspian Basin does not pose a major challenge to the supremacy of the Arab Gulf as a pivotal supplier of oil to world markets. It concludes that with a long-term production that would contribute roughly 3 percent to future global oil supply, the Caspian will never be a strategic alternative to the Arab Gulf and that it is destined to play a supporting role rather than a deciding one in supplying the world oil markets in the future.