Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. Part 2: Hydrostatic mesoscale numerical simulations of supergradient wind flow and streamwise ageostrophic frontogenesis

摘要

Simulation experiments reveal key processes that organize a hydrostatic environment conducive to severe turbulence. The paradigm requires the juxtaposition of the entrance region of a curved jet streak, which is highly subgeostrophic, with the entrance region of a straight jet streak, which is highly supergeostrophic. The wind and mass fields become misphased as the entrance regions converge, resulting in significant spatial variation of inertial forcing, centripetal forcing, as well as along and cross-stream pressure gradient forcing over a meso-β scale region. Maxima of these forces are misphased where the two dissimilar jet streaks converge and geostrophic balance is disrupted. Velocity divergence within the subgeostrophic region of largest upstream-directed pressure gradient force and velocity convergence near the region of largest downstream-directed centripetal/inertial-advective forcing act to produce a mesoscale front due to spatially varying confluent flow flanked by zones of increasing velocity divergence. This results in frontogenesis as well as the along-stream divergence of cyclonic and convergence of cyclonic ageostrophic vertical vorticity. The nonuniform centripetally forced mesoscale front becomes the locus of large gradients of ageostrophic vertical vorticity along an overturning isentrope. This region becomes favorable for streamwise vorticity gradient formation enhancing the environment for the organization of horizontal vortex tubes in the presence of buoyant forcing. This is because the mesoscale convergence of vertical vorticity on an overturning isentropic surface creates vertical rotation for the development of horizontal vorticity in regions where isentropic surfaces overturn. Vorticity, shear, and buoyancy are focused in one location by this front thus favoring an environment favorable for microvortex formation leading to turbulence.