The analysis and impact of simulated high-resolution surface observations in addition to radar data for convective storms with an ensemble Kalman filter

摘要

Observing system simulation experiments are performed using an ensemble Kalman filter to investigate the impact of surface observations in addition to radar data on convective storm analysis and forecasting. A multi-scale procedure is used in which different covariance localization radii are used for radar and surface observations. When the radar is far enough away from the main storm so that the low level data coverage is poor, a clear positive impact of surface observations is achieved when the network spacing is 20 km or smaller. The impact of surface data increases quasi-linearly with decreasing surface network spacing until the spacing is close to the grid interval of the truth simulation. The impact of surface data is sustained or even amplified during subsequent forecasts when their impact on the analysis is significant. When microphysics-related model error is introduced, the impact of surface data is reduced but still evidently positive, and the impact also increases with network density. Through dynamic flow-dependent background error covariance, the surface observations not only correct near-surface errors, but also errors at the mid- and upper levels. State variables different from observed are also positively impacted by the observations in the analysis.