Practical Research on Fuzzy Risk of Water Resources in Jinhua City, China

摘要

A fuzzy expected value of the possibility-probability distribution is a set with $underline{E}_{alpha}(x)$ and $overline{E}_{alpha}(x)$ as its boundaries. The fuzzy expected values $underline{E}_{alpha}(x)$ and $overline{E}_{alpha}(x)$ of a possibility-probability distribution represent the fuzzy risk values being calculated. Using these values under a given α level, three risk values can be calculated: a conservative risk value, a venture risk value, and a maximum probability risk value. Calculation of the fuzzy expected value of Jinhua City’s water resource risk has been performed based on the interior-exterior set model. This model is first used to evaluate the risk of water resources in Jinhua City: it not only solves an imprecise probability estimation, which results from small samples and unclear risk relationship, but it also explores the implicit risk information of the raw data as much as possible. Both of these achievements can make analyses more objective and comprehensive, which makes it easy to regulate options for policy-makers. Hence, the fuzzy risk analysis provides a new way to assess water resources.