Statistical Analysis of the 30-Day Water Level Forecasts in the St. Lawrence River

摘要

Forecasts of water levels in the St. Lawrence River on the east coast of Canada have been issued every working day since 1997 using a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model (One-D) for periods extending up to 30 days. In order to assess the performance of these forecasts, a comparison between the model forecasts and the observations of the water levels during 2005 was done at 12 stations of the SINECO network located between Montreal and Quebec City. The statistical analysis shows that mean errors are small compared to the water level fluctuations. Confidence intervals of the forecasted values for all stations are evaluated.