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Non-linearity in MCP with Weibull Distributed Wind Speeds

机译:威布尔分布风速的MCP中的非线性

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摘要

Conventional MCP (Measure Correlate Predict) techniques often employ linear regression to model the relationship between wind speeds at two sites and use this model to predict the long term wind regime at one site from the long term wind regime at the other. In considering sites whose wind speeds are Weibull distributed it can be demonstrated analytically that linear relationships do not, in fact, hold. The general relationship is found to be of the form y = mxα + c where α is the ratio of the shape parameters of the Weibull distributions. Linearity prevails only when the shape parameters are equal. This is seen to have implications for MCP analysis.
机译:常规的MCP(测量相关预测)技术通常采用线性回归来模拟两个站点的风速之间的关系,并使用此模型来预测一个站点的长期风况和另一站点的长期风况。在考虑风速为威布尔分布的站点时,可以通过分析证明线性关系实际上并不成立。发现一般关系的形式为y =mxα+ c,其中α是Weibull分布的形状参数之比。线性仅在形状参数相等时才有效。可以看出这对MCP分析具有影响。

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