Systems-Based Approach to Preparedness for, Response to, and Recovery from Natural and Human-Made Disasters

摘要

This article posits that the complex technical, organizational, and communication process associated with preparedness for, response to, and recovery from natural and human-made disasters is harmonious and synonymous with the process of risk assessment, management, and communication. Modelers of these processes must recognize that the states of the system, whether of the affected infrastructures or of the communities, constitute essential building blocks of the constructed models. The physical states of all infrastructures and the states of well-being of all communities are functions of time; thus, the time frame in modeling, as well as in preparedness and in risk analysis, is of paramount importance. Furthermore, the vulnerability and resilience of a system (physical or natural) to a specific threat (initiating event) are manifestations of the states of the system. This implies that the risk to a targeted system from a specific threat is a function of the states, the vulnerability, the resilience of the system, the time frame, and the specific threat. The term risk connotes a multidimensional risk function. This paper discusses the trade-offs between present tangible investments in resources for protective options and future intangible enhanced resilience in the region through a study involving a shortage of potable water following a hurricane. A multiobjective decision tree analysis for preparedness, response, and recovery is presented, along with a discussion of the results and the lessons learned.