Duration Estimate at Completion: Improving Earned Value Management Forecasting Accuracy

摘要

Earned Value Management (EVM) has been established as a project management technique for project monitoring and control. The traditional EVM performs well in forecasting Cost Performance index and other cost metrics. However, in terms of schedule performance, the accuracy of the forecasted schedule metrics through the traditional EVM approach are always questionable. The schedule performance is not measured in time unit but rather in monetary units or uses cost information, which may cause misleading in the interpretation of the EVM schedule metrics. The schedule performance is not accurately forecasted, resulting in underestimating the estimate at completion (t). Even the renowned Earned Schedule also uses cost as a proxy to determine the earned schedule. This paper presents a new EVM tool, Duration estimate at completion (DEAC-model) developed to accurately forecast the time estimate at completion. DEAC-model uses the actual time spent on each activity, either in progress or upon completion, where the Performance is measured in time units. The benefits of DEAC-model to project management team and researchers are that it can be used: 1) to forecast schedule metrics accurately so that resources can be effectively allocated to complete the remaining activities, 2) as a gauge to assess if the project can be completed within the plan schedule, and 3) to apply time series and simple linear regression model concepts using excel worksheet syntax to forecast duration estimate at completion that is easily applicable.