On the Need for Uncertainty Assessment in TMDL Modeling and Implementation

摘要

Estimation of TMDL forecast uncertainty should not be a requirement merely because the margin of safety requires it. Rather, uncertainty should be computed because it results in better decisions. In the short run, this can happen when the TMDL assessment is based on considerations of risk. In the long run, adaptive implementation should improve the TMDL program, and effective use of adaptive implementation is facilitated with uncertainty analysis. Regardless of time frame, the TMDL program will be better served with complete estimates of uncertainty than with arbitrary hedging factors that simply fulfill an administrative requirement.