Game Theoretical Approach to Conflict Resolution in Transboundary Water Resources Management

摘要

Management of transboundary water resources has been the focus of many studies due to the observed water stress all over the globe combined with the continually increasing water demand. States sharing water resources often proceed to negotiations regarding water allocation issues and other managerial issues in order to settle their disputes. During such negotiations the use of appropriate tools, which will provide assistance to the opponent parties in terms of scenarios quantification and simulation processes, is a vital component toward conflict resolution. The present paper implements game theoretical concepts in the case study of Greek-Bulgarian negotiations on Nestos/Mesta transboundary river. The quantification of consequences caused by water flow decrease for different scenarios provides the background for estimations of compromising solutions that could be acceptable to both countries. Moreover, implementing interconnected games widens the countries' available options and contributes to the avoidance of unreasonable outcomes while balancing uneven "power" potentials. The different utilities of the calculated payoffs to each country are leveled by the incorporation of socioeconomic factors reflecting the differences observed in the development level of the two countries.