Comparison of Various Stochastic Approaches for Irrigation Scheduling Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts

摘要

This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using probabilistic seasonal weather forecasts which are incorporated into a simulation-optimization framework. The simulation of the field processes is performed by the Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP) model, whereas the optimization is performed by three different stochastic programming methods: implicit approach, explicit single-stage approach and explicit two-stage approach. To evaluate the benefit of the probabilistic forecasts, the irrigation schedules from the different stochastic methods are compared with the best benchmark of perfect forecasts as well as with the real field and the Agriculture Extension Service of Israel schedules. The analysis is performed on a real case study of irrigated chickpeas field in Kibbutz Hazorea, Northern Israel. The results show that incorporating stochastic weather forecasts could lead to substantial improvements compared with current irrigation practices.