Using Agent-Based Modeling for Water Resources Management in the Bakken Region

摘要

Most agent-based model (ABM) applications in water resources management and planning relied on hypothetical systems for method testing and policy analysis. Although these ABM studies can help provide guidance for evaluating or designing water management policies in an exploratory way, there still exists a gap in translating the numerical results from hypothetical studies into the implementation of water policies in the real world. This study aimed to fill this gap. In this paper, we developed an ABM for the water depot-based water allocation system that has emerged to distribute a large quantity of freshwater for shale oil development activities at the Bakken (North Dakota). The ABM was then calibrated against recorded annual water uses from 2007 to 2014 before it was used to evaluate water policies and to devise effective water management strategies in the Bakken region. Our analysis shows that the authorization of the Western Area Water Supply Project, implementation of the In Lieu of Irrigation program, and accelerated issuance of temporary surface water permits were the most effective water policies adopted during the recent oil boom in terms of mitigating water shortage for hydraulic fracturing and limiting permit violations. The ideal range of the proposed permit-to-use ratio in the Bakken region should be 3.0-7.0. The use of agent-based modeling for water management in the Bakken region can help other policymakers and managers develop water policies to address increased industrial water demands associated with the unconventional oil and gas development in their regions.