Solutions for New Town Development Predicaments from a Comparison Analysis of Spatial Evolution

摘要

Successful development of new towns is vital for a healthy, highly efficient, sustainable, and symbiotic metropolis. By quantitatively comparing the spatial characteristics and evolution processes between mother city and new towns using a multinomial logit (MNL)-based cellular automata (CA) land-use change model, this study aims to find solutions for new town development predicaments, e.g., failure to attract businesses and lack of urban living and prosperity. Wuhan metropolis, China, constituted by the existing mother city and six new towns, is used for the case study. At a cell level (50 x 50 m), land-use data from the Wuhan metropolis in years 2000 and 2010 are used for model calibration. For both the mother city and the southeastern new town, the calibrated parameters of MNL models are analyzed to explore the roles of various spatial characteristics on land-use development. Furthermore, analysis of the model shows that it can capture the real regulations of spatial growth for both mother city and new towns. Scenario analysis concludes that the interactions between mother city and new towns are the critical factor for a successful spatial growth simulation. To successfully create similarly vital and lively urban life as that in the mother city, new towns should focus comprehensive development on diverse neighborhoods and improve the attractiveness of the local center. From the perspective of characteristics of spatial evolution, this study reveals the reasons why some new towns fail to create a vital and lively urban life, which is helpful for better development of new towns. (C) 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.