An objective prediction scheme for tropical cyclones making landfalls in eastern china

摘要

The landfall of tropical cyclones in the eastern part of China falls in the category of small prob- ability events. Constructing a step function with intervals adequately divided can help reflect the non-linear dis- tributin of conditional probability for a landfall event. For the prediction of landfall event probability. Factors applying the step function in transformation are superior to the standardized factors that are linearly related. The prediction scheme discussed in the work uses transformation factors of step function to formulate prediction models for tropical cyclones making landfalls in eastern China.