Stochastic Risk Assessment Methodology and Modeling as an In-Vehicle Safety Enhancing Tool for Younger Drivers on Roads

摘要

There has been a marked increase in the number of young drivers across the globe. This age category comes with deficiencies resulting from their inexperience and age-related characteristics. Mobility is a fundamental right of living by everyone whether young or old, and learning to drive is considered as a significant achievement in youth's life. However, the mobility of a younger driver by his or her own vehicles demands special considerations. The number and types of crashes caused by younger drivers indicate that they are considered as vulnerable users on roads and a risk to others (i.e., other motorists, pedestrians, and passengers). In this study, the authors identified and illustrated the potential causes of crashes by younger drivers and introduced the available measures to mitigate the crash risk. The risk of crash by younger drivers is systematically and logically modelled using fault tree analysis. Subsequently, the risk state of driving by younger drivers at a given time is mathematically modelled. Furthermore, the authors proposed the concept of "riskometer" as an interactive in-vehicle tool to monitor the risk state of driving for younger drivers on the road. The research concludes with discussions and recommendations on directions for potential applications and future research works.