STOCHASTIC FLOW DURATION CURVES FOR EVALUATION OF FLOW REGIMES IN RIVERS

摘要

A stochastic estimation of low flow in the upper reaches of streams is needed for the planning, development, and management of water resources and/or water use systems. In this paper, the definition and development procedure for the stochastic flow duration curve is presented and applied to five catchments located in eastern Japan and to two catchments in western Thailand. The probability distribution of N-year daily discharge data is extracted at various percentages of time for which specified discharges are equaled or exceeded in a water year. Such a distribution is usually represented with a straight line on log-normal probability paper. However, some of the probability plots for the annual minimum daily discharge are best represented with a straight line on Weibull probability paper. The effectiveness of the stochastic flow duration curve defined for the evaluation of flow regime is illustrated through its application. The ten year probability for the discharge exceeded 97 percent of the time may be recognized as an index of low flow. The recession shape of the lower part of the flow duration curve is dependent on the strength of low flow persistence.