PLANNING AGRICULTURAL WATER RESOURCES SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH FUZZY AND RANDOM FEATURES

摘要

More and more regions where demand outstrips water resources availability have suffered from chronic severe shortages. It is particularly aggravated for agricultural irrigation systems where more water is necessary to support the rapidly increasing population and speedily developing economy. In this study, a two-stage fuzzy-stochastic programming (TFSP) method is developed for planning agricultural water resources management system in more efficient and sustainable ways. The developed method can address uncertain parameters described as probability distributions and fuzzy sets. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences since penalties are exercised with recourse actions against any infeasibility. The developed method is applied to agricultural water-resources management planning of the Zhangweinan River Basin, China. Solutions under various a-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels, which can help determine optimized crop-target values that could hedge appropriately against future available water levels. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of crop irrigation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between economic objective and system-failure risk.