The Viability of Textile Manufacturing in Developed Economies in the New Millennium

摘要

Until recently the enormous penetration of domestic textile markets in Europe, and particularly in the UK where the degree of penetration is approaching elimination, has been ascribed to the difference in hourly labour rates. It is shown that this ceased to apply several years ago and that the USA and Italy are fully capable of dealing effectively with competition and restricting imports. It is shown that this situation existed in the last decade of the millennium, prior to the recent revolution in the design of spinning and weaving machinery. It is shown by reference to ITMF International Cost Comparison statistics that the large hourly wage differential has been gradually neutralised by increasing efficiency in developed economies and by increased disadvantage costs in the newly developed countries (NDCs), and that by 1997 the US mills were capable of competing effectively with the ex-works costs of several NDCs and with the landed costs of the lowest cost producers (India and Indonesia) when adjusted by differences in cotton price and machine activity. The revolution in the design and performance of spinning and weaving machinery that occurred in the last decade has not as yet made significant penetration into industrial practice, but the enormous increases in performance are such as to make it possible to reduce the labour content from the 18% achieved in efficient mills to below 10%. The revolution does not only relate to performance. Weaving machines are now available capable of producing commodity textiles and many niche qualities at production rates hitherto never achieved in the production of simple basic constructions; resulting in significant manufacturing economies in the production of fabrics formerly regarded as specialities with appropriate manufacturing costs. The probable effect of the machinery revolution and the manufacturing costs of textile industries in different locations is considered, and it is shown that at moderate wage levels, i.e. the level currently existing in the USA and the UK, there is still considerable potential in the 1995 technology (the technology considered in the 1997 ITMF International Cost Comparison), and that a replacement must not only demonstrate spectacular improvement but must do so at moderate capital cost increase. The situation is shown to be different in Switzerland, Denmark, Belgium and Japan where hourly rates are double those currently paid in the USA and the UK. A feasibility study of a new vertical high-tech spinning and weaving mill in the UK is shown to be economically viable, and various suggestions are made as to how a 'Phoenix' operation might be financed. `