The development pattern of the global textile industry and trade: Part Ⅱ - the evidence from U.S. textile exports in the 1980s

摘要

Part Ⅰ of this research examined the pattern of world textile trade in light of theoretical perspectives of the developmental stages of the global textile industry and trade and the empirical evidence from CMS analysis of textile exports of the EC, the Far East and Emerging Textile Exporting countries in the 1980s. This paper is Part Ⅱ of this research and attempts to obtain empirical evidence from the pattern of U.S. textile exports in the 1980s. U.S. textile exports in the 1980s showed the lowest growth among world competitors, a negative trade balance and decreased market shares in developed and developing markets. CMS results reveal that the growth of the world economy and textile trade was the main source of the growth of U.S. textile exports during the decade. The industry structure was not a significant source mainly because U.S. textile exports were more focused on low-growth export markets and textile commodities. Prices of U.S. textile exports were competitive in 1979—81 but became not competitive in 1982—84 and 1985-87 due to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar in the early 1980s. The recovery of competitiveness of U.S. export prices in 1988-90 demonstrates the positive effects of the weakening U.S. dollar by the mid-1980s and the U.S. textile industry's restructuring, improved productivity and decreased production costs. U.S. textile exports in the 1980s showed a shift in specialization away from the commodities of mass-standardization and inter-industry trade, where the U.S. comparative advantage was declining, to increasing specialization in commodities of high product differentiation and intra-industry trade based on its high skill levels and capital and evolving domestic consumer demand. This paper concludes that the identified pattern of U.S. textile exports in the 1980s was consistent with the trade pattern of the textile industry and trade at developmental Stage Three.