Does Japan's accession to the Trans-Pacific Partnership mean an opportunity or a threat to the US textile industry? A quantitative evaluation

摘要

This study provides a quantitative evaluation on the potential impact of the implementation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the economic interests in the US textile industry, particularly with regard to Japan's accession to the agreement. By adopting the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model based on the GTAP8 database, results of the study show that: first, trade creation effect of the TPP would result in an increase of the US textile exports to other TPP members; however, with Japan's accession to the TPP, the potential expansion of the US textile exports would be substantially offset. Second, the TPP would negatively affect the US textile exports to the North American Free Trade Agreement and CAFTA regions, particularly in the case when Japan becomes a TPP member. Third, the TPP would expand the two-way intra-industry trade between the United States and Japan for textiles. Fourth, the TPP would cause an expansion of the trade deficit as well as a decline of domestic production in the US textile industry, particularly in the case when Japan becomes a TPP member. Findings of this study augment our understanding of the Textile and apparel (T&A)-specific sectoral impact of the TPP and provide valuable inputs supporting the T&A sectoral negotiation under the TPP.