Combined Wind-Wave-Surge Hurricane-Induced Damage Prediction for Buildings

摘要

Coastal structures are subjected to multihazard events such as hurricanes which consist of hurricane-induced surge and waves as well as winds. Hurricanes are a common natural hazard in the United States and cause considerable damage every year, with resulting annualized losses in the United States in the tens of billions of dollars. Although improvements in construction practices have been notable over time for individual hazards, there is still a dearth of risk and damage prediction methods in the area of multiple hazards that are based on principles of mechanics. In this study, a methodology to develop multihazard damage fragilities is summarized and illustrated for a wood-frame residential-building archetype subjected to hurricane winds, storm surge, and waves. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) requires new buildings along the US coastline to be constructed with the first finished floor set at an elevation that exceeds a minimum necessary elevation. Therefore, two different elevations are considered for the lowest horizontal structural member of the archetype to also examine its effect on damage fragilities. The developed multihazard fragilities are used to calculate the time-dependent probability of each damage state at a given location over the timeframe of an event, i.e.,hurricane. In this regard, the spatial and temporal data of wind speeds, flood depths, and significant wave heights for Hurricane Ike are simulated by the ADCIRC + SWAN model (a tightly coupled version of the ADvanced CIRCulation model and the Simulating WAves Nearshore model for simulating the propagation of storm surge and waves from deep water to the coastal region). The performance of nonelevated and elevated archetypes is examined at different locations in southeast Texas for Hurricane Ike and a scenario of damage states predicted for this area for the elevated archetype.