Stochastic Analysis of Constellation Performance and Mass Margins

摘要

A new method for analyzing margins in the Constellation program is described and applied to the performancenand mass margins for the integrated transportation system returning humans to the lunar surface. The approachntreats the Ares-V Earth-departure-stage gross payload-delivery capability and the translunar injection masses ofnOrion and Altair as random variables. For various vehicle requirements, vehicle control masses, and designnreference missions, a Monte Carlo simulation estimate is used to estimate the critical probability that the deliveryncapability exceeds that injected mass. This critical probability can be used to establish program performancenand mass margins and, in conjunction with other measures, to manage vehicle selection and trades at the programnlevel.