Effect of Orbit Data Quality on the Feasibility of Collision Risk Management

摘要

An analysis was performed to determine the effect of orbit data quality on the feasibility of collision risk management in low Earth orbit. Collision risk is assumed to be managed by active collision prediction and avoidance. Cost was measured in terms of maneuver frequency. The analysis was performed on a hypothetical satellite constellation. The results of the study indicate that the cost of collision risk management is very sensitive to orbit data quality. Significant collision risk reduction is shown to be very expensive using orbit data of low accuracy. If low-Earth-orbit optical tracker technology can be developed that can produce orbit accuracies similar to those of the Raven telescope in geosynchronous orbit, then significant collision risk reduction may be feasible.