Concerns for future generations in societies: A deliberative analysis of the intergenerational sustainability dilemma

摘要

The intergenerational sustainability dilemma (ISD) is a serious problem in that the current generation tends to choose actions with regard to their own benefit without considering future generations. However, little is known about how people deliberate and what types of "concepts" people consider with regard to ISD in societies. We institute field experiments of an ISD game (ISDG) and conduct qualitative deliberative analysis in rural and urban societies of Nepal. A sequence of six generations, each composed of three people, is organized, and each generation is asked to choose whether to maintain intergenerational sustainability (sustainable option) or maximize their payoff by irreversibly imposing costs on future generations (unsustainable option) in the ISDG. Each generation conducts a discussion lasting up to 10 min before making their decision, thereby enabling the deliberative analysis of the ISD. The qualitative deliberative analysis shows that the attitudes and concepts, such as ideas, motivations and reasons, that people discuss during the deliberation vary between urban and rural people. A considerable portion of urban people are identified as "stable" "influencers" who consistently argue for supporting unsustainable options, while another considerable portion of urban people are identified as "dependent" "conditional followers" who follow the influencers, and rural people do not show such tendencies. Moreover, urban subjects discuss more arguments regarding not considering future generations during their deliberations than do rural people, thereby leading urban generations to more frequently choose unsustainable options. Overall, our deliberative analysis finds that urban subjects may be becoming less concerned about future generations, and a close-knit rural society, such as rural areas in Nepal, can be a hope for solving the ISD.