A Prewarning Analysis of the Credit Risk of Local Government Debt in China

摘要

Taking the debt of local governments in 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China as the research object, this paper incorporates data on GDP, general budget revenue and other indicators from 1995 to 2016 in an improved KMV model to predict the credit default probability of local government debt from 2017 to 2019 and to put forward related suggestions.