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Measuring the impact of clean energy production on CO_2 abatement in Denmark: Upper bound estimation and forecasting

机译:测量清洁能源生产对丹麦CO_2减少的影响:上限估计和预测

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摘要

Using annual data from 1978 through 2016, and monthly data from January 2005 through November 2017 from Denmark, we provide a precise estimate of the upper bound on the potential impact of the adoption of wind energy on the reduction of CO2 emissions from energy production. We separate causal impacts from endogenous effects in regressions using instrumental variables including average wind speed, and from spurious effects in dynamic systems using impulse-response analysis and cointegration techniques. A one percentage point increase in the share of wind in total energy production is found to cause a reduction in CO2 emissions of the order 0.3%, based on endogeneity-corrected regression, and 0.5% over 2 years in a fractional vector error-correction model, after allowing the cumulative effects to take place. This corresponds to an upper bound estimate of 0.69 tonnes of CO2 emissions avoided per additional MWh of wind energy produced. We find that after a structural break at the time of introduction of the EU ETS and the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, the country has been on track towards meeting its long-term goals for emission reduction and green energy production, but not before.
机译:从1978年到2016年的年度数据,以及从2005年1月到2017年11月的每月数据从丹麦提供了精确的估计,对采用风能采用对能源生产的二氧化碳排放的潜在影响的潜在影响。我们使用仪器变量在回归中的内源性效应与使用平均风速,以及使用脉冲响应分析和协整技术的动态系统的杂散效应分离因果影响。在总能源生产中,风中的份额增加一个百分点增加,根据内能性校正的回归,减少了0.3%的十二二氧化碳排放量,分数向量误差模型超过2年的0.5% ,在允许累积效果之后发生。这对应于每次产生的风能的MWH避免了0.69吨二氧化碳排放的上限估计。我们发现,在2005年引入欧盟ETS和京都议定书时的结构休息后,该国一直致力于满足其长期目标,可减排和绿色能源生产,但不是之前。

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