Quantile forecast combinations in realised volatility prediction

摘要

This paper tests whether it is possible to improve point, quantile, and density forecasts of realised volatility by conditioning on a set of predictive variables. We employ quantile autor-egressive models augmented with macroeconomic and financial variables. Complete subset combinations of both linear and quantile forecasts enable us to efficiently summarise the information content in the candidate predictors. Our findings suggest that no single variable is able to provide more information for the evolution of the volatility distribution beyond that contained in its own past. The best performing variable is the return on the stock market followed by the inflation rate. Our complete subset approach achieves superior point, quantile, and density predictive performance relative to the univariate models and the autor-egressive benchmark.