Prospects for U.S.-Russian Strategic Arms Control After the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review

摘要

The Trump Administration’s release of its 2018 NuclearPosture Review (NPR), coupled with developments in theU.S.-Russian relationship over the Administration’s first two years,make the prospects for the New START Treaty and any extensionor successor arrangement less certain than at any pointin recent memory. While the NPR still applauds the goal of “theultimate global elimination of nuclear […] weapons” in principle, itexpresses deep skepticism about the de facto readiness of U.S.counterparts to pursue negotiations in good faith toward furthernuclear reductions and disarmament given the current securityenvironment, as competitors have not followed the United States’lead in pursuing that goal.1 Taking the 2018 NPR into account,this paper recommends that signaling U.S. intent to extend NewSTART as soon as feasible represents a “good deal” for U.S. interests.Specifically, this paper:1. Offers an initial assessment of a suite of options availableto the United States for its strategic arms control frameworkwith the Russian Federation, with primary emphasison options for the New START Treaty;2. Discusses the implications of the 2018 NPR and relateddevelopments for the New START Treaty’s extensionprospects;3. Reviews and assesses policy, legal, and national securityimplications for several future New START scenarios,including treaty preservation without extension, treatyextension, revision, abrogation, development of a newarms control framework, and treaty violation;4. Offers messaging and talking points using argumentsdelivered in layman’s terms for why signaling U.S. intentto extend New START as soon as feasible is a good dealfor the United States.