On the probability of discovering a new species

摘要

Assuming that the number of individuals in a multi-species population selected from any single species is a Poisson process, the probability of discovering a new species in one selection can be predicted based on a sample of individuals selected up to a fixed time. The properties of Turing-type predictor are investigated. Alternative methods are indicated when the Turing-type predictor fails. Examples from numismatics and ecology are used as an illustration.