The Dragon Looks North: The Arctic, China, and the Law of the Sea Bring Prospects for New Opportunities and New Perils

摘要

No matter the fate of the Arctic Circle, China is a lynchpin in its future. China's unparalleled economic growth and consumption, the future impact of rising tides on its coastal industrial centers due to the melting poles, and its ever-increasing need for energy security ensure that it will be at the negotiation table for years to come. In this way, China's needs and concerns are not unlike those of the United States and other industrialized western nations; however, its track record of aggressive behavior toward its neighbors and undermining international law continue to make its future intentions in the Arctic suspect. Beijing's interest in the region is apparent from its push for scientific research, its increased utilization of the Northern Sea Route, and its involvement with smaller Arctic states. However, these challenges are not without solutions. The Arctic is currently a lawless territory, but aggressive behavior can be curtailed by focused guidance from the United States and enforceable legal institutions like UNCLOS and the Arctic Council. This is the best way to ensure that some good will come from our failure to restrain the progress of global climate change.