...
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Mathematical Sciences >ECONOMETRIC MODELING AT MIXED FREQUENCIES
【24h】

ECONOMETRIC MODELING AT MIXED FREQUENCIES

机译:混合频率的经济建模

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
   

获取外文期刊封面封底 >>

       

摘要

A helpful first step in building an adequate structural model of the present Russian economy is to build a high-frequency system based on monthly statistics for very short run projections of overall economic performance. The period of adequate statistical documentation is very short; so three steps are proposed: (1) a very short run monthly model for projecting major aggregative indicators for periods of 6-months-to-one-year ahead; (2) construction of a more detailed structural model of the whole economy patterned after those that have been prepared for most major economies of the world, as enough components of an adequate database have been collected, with an aim of making quarterly or annual projections; (3) a mathematical linkage of the two systems, so that the high-frequency system provides immediate short-run projections and the medium-term structural system of lower frequency generates projections of three-to-five years ahead that are "as close as possible," in the sense of a minimized loss function, to the high-frequency projections of major variables.
机译:建立当前俄罗斯经济的适当结构模型的一个有益的第一步是建立基于月度统计数据的高频系统,以对总体经济表现进行非常短期的预测。足够的统计文件记录期限很短;因此,建议采取以下三个步骤:(1)建立短期的每月模型,以预测未来6个月至一年的主要综合指标; (2)建立更详细的整体经济结构模型,仿照为世界上大多数主要经济体准备的模型,因为已经收集了足够的数据库组成部分,目的是进行季度或年度预测; (3)两种系统之间的数学联系,以便高频系统提供即时的短期预测,而低频的中期结构系统生成未来三到五年的预测,“与从最大的损失函数的意义上讲,是对主要变量的高频预测。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号