Simulation of the mean zero-up-crossing wave period using artificial neural networks trained with a simulated annealing algorithm

摘要

The aim of this work was to develop a predictive model to forecast the mean zero-up-crossing wave periods (T_z) for 3-hourly sea states at a location in the Pacific using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Seven multilayer ANNs were trained with a simulated annealing algorithm. The output of each trained ANN was used to estimate each of the seven parameters of a new distribution called the hepta-parameter spline proposed for the conditional distribution of T_z, given some mean zero-up-crossing wave periods and significant wave heights. After estimating the parameters of the distribution, the model was used to simulate and predict future values of T_z. Forecasting a sea state and developing the joint distribution of sea state characteristics with the help of the simulated characteristics are also discussed in this article.