Value-at-Risk Model Analysis of Taiwanese High-Tech Facility Construction

摘要

Taiwan is among the few countries that have a high density of high-tech facilities in the world, and the high-tech industry accounts for a large proportion of the annual output value of the global high-tech industry. During the construction period, the property loss of high-tech facilities is the issue of most concerned for the owners, investors, and contractors. This paper aims to study the risks of high-tech facility construction and identify the probability distributions suitable for the simulation of loss frequency, loss amount, and loss claim, respectively. The risks with the highest impact are attributable to negligence, fire, leakage, falling, and collision. Also, using the normalized loss factor as an indicator of the value at risk (VaR), this paper provides a way to estimate the maximum loss that might occur during a target time frame by means of the variance-covariance, historical simulation, and Monte Carlo methods. (c) 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.