Linking Serial Residential Burglary: Comparing the Utility of Modus Operandi Behaviours, Geographical Proximity, and Temporal Proximity

摘要

Whilst case linkage is used with serious forms of serial crime (e.g. rape and murder), the potential exists for it to be used with volume crime. This study replicates and extends previous research on the behavioural linking of burglaries. One hundred and sixty solved residential burglaries were sampled from a British police force. From these, 80 linked crime pairs (committed by the same serial offender) and HO unlinked crime pairs (committed by two different serial offenders) were created. Following the methodology used by previous researchers, the behavioural similarity, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity of linked crime pairs were compared with those of unlinked crime pairs. Geographical and temporal proximity possessed a high degree of predictive accuracy in distinguishing linked from unlinked pairs as assessed by logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses. Comparatively, other traditional modus operandi behaviours showed less potential for linkage. Whilst personality psychology literature has suggested we might expect to find a relationship between temporal proximity and behavioural consistency, such a relationship was not observed.