How Long Do Offenders Escape Arrest? Using DNA Traces to Analyse when Serial Offenders Are Caught (pages 13–29)

摘要

Why is it that some serial offenders are arrested quickly and others only after a longnperiod, or never at all? What characterises offenders who continue to escape arrest despitentheir continued involvement in crime? To be able to answer these questions, arrestedn(identified) offenders must be compared with never arrested (unidentified) offenders. In thisnpaper, data from the Dutch DNA database are used to assess which characteristics of thencriminal behaviour of unidentified offenders influence the probability that they will subsequentlynbe arrested. DNA data offer a unique opportunity to compare crime series of identifiednoffenders with crime series of yet unidentified offenders. Using the Cox proportionalnhazards model, we tested whether the number of crimes committed, offence specialization,nand offence seriousness affect the probability of arrest of serial offenders. Results showednthat as an offender commits more crimes, the probability that he will be arrested increasesnand that offence specialization decreases the probability of arrest. Another conclusionndrawn is that DNA traces offer unique opportunities for criminological research. Wendiscuss the limitations of this new data source and make suggestions for future researchnusing DNA traces and for future research that might improve the current study. Copyrightn© 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.