The impact of European Central Bank Governing Council announcements on the foreign exchange market: a microstructural analysis

摘要

We examine the evidence regarding systematic patterns in the euro-dollar foreign exchange market on days when the Governing Council (GC) of the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decisions versus other days. We examine 5-minute data in a nonlinear framework allowing for switching between a high-volatility, informed-trading state and a low-volatility, liquidity-trading state. We find strong evidence that the GC policy announcements contain significant news content. Although there is some evidence of positioning in the hour prior to the announcement, this probably reflects dealers minimizing their exposure rather than evidence of information leakage.