Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach for Pavement Project Evaluation Using Life-Cycle Cost/Performance Analysis

摘要

Project life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) is a reasonable approach to compare pavement design alternatives, but not taking into consideration of pavement performance in the most LCCA approaches may lead not to obtain the most desirable alternative for road users and associated highway agencies. This article introduces a multicriteria decision making method for pavement project evaluation using LCCA that (1) utilizes fuzzy set theory to model and handle uncertainties; (2) takes into account the extra user costs attributable to inadequate pavement condition; and (3) as a criterion, considers life-cycle pavement performance that describes overall pavement serviceability condition. Using a hypothetical project, the paper clarifies the performance of the proposed method for long-term evaluating alternative pavement design strategies. The alternatives are compared with respect to each criterion of the method, and also using sensitivity analysis, it is determined that changes in the decision maker's risk and confidence attitudes can affect the ranking of the alternatives.